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Vorskla Poltava W vs Gintra-Universitetas W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Vorskla Poltava W
Vorskla Poltava W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gintra-Universitetas W
Gintra-Universitetas W
8/30/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying Round - FinalsSiauliai central stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vorskla Poltava W70%
×Draw19%
Gintra-Universitetas W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava W
2.13
Gintra-Universitetas W
0.73

Vorskla Poltava W creates 192% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava W
2.25
Gintra-Universitetas W
0.33

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava W
1.13
Gintra-Universitetas W
2.00

finishing

Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par
Gintra-Universitetas W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava W ↓

Gintra-Universitetas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava W or draw
88%
Vorskla Poltava W or Gintra-Universitetas W
81%
Draw or Gintra-Universitetas W
30%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+
45%
Gintra-Universitetas W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals
88%
Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals
63%
Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals
35%
Gintra-Universitetas W 1+ goals
52%
Gintra-Universitetas W 2+ goals
17%
Gintra-Universitetas W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)
86%
Gintra-Universitetas W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Gintra-Universitetas W away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava W attack 2.25 + Gintra-Universitetas W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gintra-Universitetas W attack 0.33 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vorskla Poltava W scores more
70%
level
19%
Gintra-Universitetas W scores more
12%

Vorskla Poltava W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorskla Poltava W vs Gintra-Universitetas W

Vorskla Poltava W beat Gintra-Universitetas W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Siauliai central stadium.