Vorskla Poltava W 2–0 Ferencváros W: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ferencváros W

R. Kravchuk 90+4'

K. Korsun 29'

9/7/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - FinalsHévízi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vorskla Poltava W42%

×Draw21%

Ferencváros W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla Poltava WExpected goals in this matchFerencváros W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.81

Vorskla Poltava W

1.96

Ferencváros W

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

2.50

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava W

2.25

Ferencváros W

2.50

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava W

1.13

Ferencváros W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par

Ferencváros W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava W ↓

Ferencváros W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava W or draw

64%

Vorskla Poltava W or Ferencváros W

79%

Draw or Ferencváros W

58%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+

23%

Ferencváros W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals

86%

Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals

58%

Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals

31%

Ferencváros W 1+ goals

84%

Ferencváros W 2+ goals

54%

Ferencváros W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)

54%

Ferencváros W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Ferencváros W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava W attack 2.25 + Ferencváros W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ferencváros W attack 2.50 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vorskla Poltava W scores more

42%

level

21%

Ferencváros W scores more

36%

Vorskla Poltava W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

35'

38'

40'

43'

52'

A. Túróczy← J. Edwards

52'

A. Németh← R. Demeter

56'

A. Davydenko

65'

A. Kumeda← T. Levytska

67'

V. Kubassova

67'

V. Kubassova

74'

O. Osipyan← I. Kotiash

81'

82'

82'

88'

90'

M. Shaynyuk

90+6'

Y. Kalinina

90+4'

K. Voit← A. Davydenko

90+4'

R. Kravchuk

Vorskla

Ferencváros

1

Kostić

9

▼

5

20

14

7

▼

Zágonyi

25

▼

Nagy

58

Kubassova

27

▼

24

17

23

3

▼

Davydenko

17

⚽

29

19

4

2

▼

Levytska

22

⚽

Kravchuk

16

▼

Kotiash

10

Kalinina

9

Radionova

Manager: V. Efimako

65'▲A. Kumeda←▼T. Levytska

74'▲O. Osipyan←▼I. Kotiash

90+4'▲K. Voit←▼A. Davydenko

Vorskla Poltava W substitutes

8Kumeda20Osipyan15Voit77Savka14Kravets21Tarasiuk1Kharchenko26Ailinkyi

Manager: F. Albert

52'▲A. Túróczy←▼J. Edwards

52'▲A. Németh←▼R. Demeter

81'▲D. Czellér←▼V. Nagy

82'▲E. Csigi←▼B. Zágonyi

Ferencváros W substitutes

4Túróczy23Németh88Czellér13Csigi10Diószegi22Barti33Kovács32Gégény15Hubbard21Major

UEFA Champions League Women: Vorskla Poltava W 2–0 Ferencváros W

Vorskla Poltava W beat Ferencváros W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 7, 2024.

Goals: K. Korsun (29'), R. Kravchuk (90+4').

The match was played at Hévízi úti Stadion in Budapest.

Vorskla Poltava W vs Ferencváros W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women: Vorskla Poltava W 2–0 Ferencváros W