Vorskla Poltava 0–5 Shakhtar Donetsk

Vorskla Poltava

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Shakhtar Donetsk

D. Sikan 88'

M. Matviienko 68', 8'

H. Sudakov 67' (pen)

O. Zubkov 31'

8/4/2024

Premier League · Round 1Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vorskla Poltava22%

×Draw26%

Shakhtar Donetsk52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.48

Vorskla Poltava

0.86

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.48

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

0.92

creates per match

1.86

1.09

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

0.92

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.86

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.09

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.81

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Vorskla Poltava-0.06on par

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

48%

Vorskla Poltava or Shakhtar Donetsk

74%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

78%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

7%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

58%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

21%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

6%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

77%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

43%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

30%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.86 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

22%

level

26%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

52%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Matviienko

Shakhtar Donetsk · D

9.7

Match Events

8'

M. Matviienko↳ Marlon Gomes

10'

17'

22'

22'

31'

O. Zubkov↳ Kevin

46'

D. Ndukwe← M. Kovtaliuk

46'

I. Krupskyi← I. Kane

57'

O. Skliar← D. Škrijelj

64'

Eguinaldo← L. Traoré

64'

D. Kryskiv← Marlon Gomes

67'

H. SudakovPenalty

68'

M. Matviienko

73'

D. Sikan← O. Zubkov

73'

Pedrinho← Kevin

73'

T. Stepanenko← A. Bondarenko

79'

S. Iyede← I. Nesterenko

80'

A. Batsula← D. Khrypchuk

88'

D. Sikan↳ Pedrinho

90'

Pedrinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VorsklaShakhtar

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots15

0.50Expected Goals (xG)1.94

4Corners0

12Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots15

0On Target8

3Off Target4

5Blocked2

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

341Total Passes544

274Accurate Passes490

80%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1