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Vorskla Poltava vs Sabah FA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
FT
3 – 0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Club Megasaray Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vorskla Poltava85%
×Draw11%
Sabah FA4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava
2.88
Sabah FA
0.50

Vorskla Poltava creates 476% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava
3.50
Sabah FA
0.75

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava
0.25
Sabah FA
2.25

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw
96%
Vorskla Poltava or Sabah FA
89%
Draw or Sabah FA
15%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
66%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
94%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
78%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
54%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
39%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
9%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
95%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 3.50 + Sabah FA defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.88

Sabah FA attack 0.75 + Vorskla Poltava defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more
85%
level
11%
Sabah FA scores more
4%

Vorskla Poltava at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Vorskla Poltava 3–0 Sabah FA

Vorskla Poltava beat Sabah FA 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Club Megasaray Football Center in Serik.