Vorskla Poltava 0–3 Polessya: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Polessya

D. Shastal 90+1'

B. Makouana 54'

B. Kushnirenko 37' (pen)

10/22/2023

Premier League · Round 11Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vorskla Poltava24%

×Draw26%

Polessya51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchPolessya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.55

Vorskla Poltava

0.97

Polessya

1.55

Polessya creates 60% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

0.89

creates per match

1.89

1.21

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

0.89

Polessya

1.89

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.21

Polessya

1.04

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Vorskla Poltava-0.14scores less

Polessya-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Polessya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

49%

Vorskla Poltava or Polessya

74%

Draw or Polessya

76%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

8%

Polessya wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

62%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

25%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

7%

Polessya 1+ goals

79%

Polessya 2+ goals

46%

Polessya 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

32%

Polessya (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 8 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.89 + Polessya defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Polessya attack 1.89 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

24%

level

26%

Polessya scores more

51%

Polessya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

B. Krushynskyi

Polessya · M

7.5

Match Events

15'

Artem Chelyadin

22'

Oleksandr Sklyar

37'

B. KushnirenkoPenalty

38'

Bohdan Kushnirenko

44'

Artem Smoliakov

46'

V. Hrytsuk← B. Krushynskyi

54'

B. Makouana↳ Arielson

56'

Tiago Santana

64'

D. Khrypchuk← Tiago Santana

64'

Felipe Rodrigues← V. Korniienko

66'

D. Shastal← Arielson

73'

Lucas Taylor← B. Makouana

75'

Ruslan Stepanyuk

77'

D. Chernysh← I. Nesterenko

89'

Daniil Khrypchuk

90+1'

D. Shastal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VorsklaPolessya

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots8

0.70Expected Goals (xG)2.05

8Corners1

27Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target3

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

3Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

409Total Passes269

330Accurate Passes212

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

27Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1