Vorskla Poltava 3–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Oleksandria

V. Kulach 77' (pen), 39'

O. Thill 70'

V. Baboglo 55'

2/27/2021

Premier League · Round 16Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vorskla Poltava33%

×Draw29%

Oleksandria38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.16

Vorskla Poltava

1.07

Oleksandria

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

0.92

creates per match

1.23

1.09

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

0.92

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.09

Oleksandria

1.22

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Vorskla Poltava-0.06on par

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

62%

Vorskla Poltava or Oleksandria

71%

Draw or Oleksandria

67%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

13%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

66%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

29%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

9%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

69%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

32%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

47%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

33%

level

29%

Oleksandria scores more

38%

Oleksandria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Dmytro Grechyshkin

39'

V. Kulach

46'

M. Tretyakov← V. Luchkevych

51'

Roman Vantukh

55'

V. Baboglo

57'

Dmytro Shastal

65'

V. Sapay← H. Tsitaishvili

65'

Luizão← I. Kane

67'

D. Ustymenko← D. Shastal

70'

O. Thill↳ I. Perduta

71'

A. Chelyadin← R. Stepanyuk

76'

Evgen Banada

77'

V. KulachPenalty

79'

Artem Sitalo

80'

T. Stetskov← R. Vantukh

81'

A. Novikov← Y. Banada

82'

B. de Nooijer← O. Thill

89'

Bradley de Nooijer

89'

B. Myshenko← K. Kovalets

Possession

Shots

Statistics

VorsklaOleksandria

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots17

4Corners11

12Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots17

3On Target6

3Off Target11

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria

Vorskla Poltava beat Oleksandria 3-1 in Premier League on February 27, 2021.

Goals: V. Kulach (39', 77' pen), V. Baboglo (55'), O. Thill (70').

Oleksandria controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Poltava.

Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria