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Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava — Premier League 2019

Oleksandria
Oleksandria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
3/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21CSC Nika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Oleksandria44%
×Draw26%
Vorskla Poltava29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oleksandria
1.42
Vorskla Poltava
1.11

Oleksandria creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 82 away

creates per match

Oleksandria
1.44
Vorskla Poltava
0.91

allows per match

Oleksandria
1.32
Vorskla Poltava
1.40

finishing

Oleksandria+0.00on par
Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oleksandria ↓

Vorskla Poltava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oleksandria or draw
71%
Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava
74%
Draw or Vorskla Poltava
56%

Winning margin

Oleksandria wins by 2+
21%
Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oleksandria 1+ goals
76%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
41%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
17%
Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
67%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
30%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oleksandria (draw refunded)
60%
Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oleksandria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oleksandria attack 1.44 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Oleksandria defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oleksandria scores more
44%
level
26%
Vorskla Poltava scores more
29%

Oleksandria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Oleksandria 1–0 Vorskla Poltava

Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 in Premier League on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at CSC Nika in Aleksandriya.