Vorskla Poltava 0–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oleksandria

D. Shastal 23'

8/31/2019

Premier League · Round 6Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vorskla Poltava33%

×Draw29%

Oleksandria38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.16

Vorskla Poltava

1.07

Oleksandria

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

0.92

creates per match

1.23

1.09

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

0.92

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.09

Oleksandria

1.22

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Vorskla Poltava-0.06on par

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

62%

Vorskla Poltava or Oleksandria

71%

Draw or Oleksandria

67%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

13%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

66%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

29%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

9%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

69%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

32%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

47%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

33%

level

29%

Oleksandria scores more

38%

Oleksandria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

25'

34'

47'

54'

63'

A. Sitalo← D. Shastal

74'

Luizao

78'

Y. Protasov← M. Zaderaka

81'

R. Hebaj← Y. Kolomoets

90'

O. Dovgy

90'

G. Bukhal

90'

V. Baboglo← P. Paşayev

Vorskla

Oleksandria

79

Pankiv

90

Dubra

20

▼

17

13

8

27

44

10

94

▼

Zaderaka

23

⚽

▼

21

17

4

27

25

66

50

8

94

7

26

▼

Kolomoets

Manager: V. Kosovskyi

81'▲R. Hebaj←▼Y. Kolomoets

Vorskla Poltava substitutes

10Hebaj12Kanevtsev16Kozyrenko82Rebenok22Stryzhak2Ochihava40Sakiv

Manager: V. Sharan

63'▲A. Sitalo←▼D. Shastal

78'▲Y. Protasov←▼M. Zaderaka

90'▲V. Baboglo←▼P. Paşayev

Oleksandria substitutes

18Sitalo7Protasov4Baboglo15Zaporozhan31Bilyk9Bezborodko5Stetskov

Match Recap: Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria

Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 in Premier League on August 31, 2019.

Goals: D. Shastal (23').

The match was played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo in Poltava.

Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vorskla Poltava vs Oleksandria