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Vorskla Poltava vs Nasaf — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
CANC
14:00
Nasaf
Nasaf
1/30/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vorskla Poltava79%
×Draw13%
Nasaf8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava
2.86
Nasaf
0.79

Vorskla Poltava creates 262% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava
3.50
Nasaf
1.33

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava
0.25
Nasaf
2.22

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw
92%
Vorskla Poltava or Nasaf
87%
Draw or Nasaf
21%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
59%
Nasaf wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
94%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
77%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
53%
Nasaf 1+ goals
55%
Nasaf 2+ goals
19%
Nasaf 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
91%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 3.50 + Nasaf defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.86

Nasaf attack 1.33 + Vorskla Poltava defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more
79%
level
13%
Nasaf scores more
8%

Vorskla Poltava at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vorskla Poltava host Nasaf

January 30, 2024: Vorskla Poltava take on Nasaf in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vorskla Poltava host Nasaf at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.