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Vorskla Poltava vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2019

Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
11/23/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vorskla Poltava35%
×Draw29%
LNZ Cherkasy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava
1.12
LNZ Cherkasy
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava
1.31
LNZ Cherkasy
1.07

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava
1.24
LNZ Cherkasy
0.93

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par
LNZ Cherkasy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw
63%
Vorskla Poltava or LNZ Cherkasy
71%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy
65%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
14%
LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
67%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
31%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
10%
LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
69%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
32%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
49%
LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.24 · 83 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 1.31 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.12

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more
35%
level
29%
LNZ Cherkasy scores more
37%

LNZ Cherkasy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vorskla Poltava 2–0 LNZ Cherkasy

Vorskla Poltava beat LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 in Premier League on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Poltava.