Vorskla Poltava 2–1 Karpaty: Result & Stats

Vorskla Poltava

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Karpaty

D. Vasin 42' (pen)

Luizão 30'

A. Boiciuc 39'

12/15/2019

Premier League · Round 18Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vorskla Poltava31%

×Draw27%

Karpaty42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla PoltavaExpected goals in this matchKarpaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.32

Vorskla Poltava

1.10

Karpaty

1.32

Karpaty creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

0.92

creates per match

1.55

1.09

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava

0.92

Karpaty

1.55

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava

1.09

Karpaty

1.29

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Vorskla Poltava-0.06on par

Karpaty-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Karpaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw

58%

Vorskla Poltava or Karpaty

73%

Draw or Karpaty

69%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

12%

Karpaty wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

67%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

30%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

10%

Karpaty 1+ goals

73%

Karpaty 2+ goals

38%

Karpaty 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

43%

Karpaty (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.29 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.92 + Karpaty defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Karpaty attack 1.55 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more

31%

level

27%

Karpaty scores more

42%

Karpaty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Luizão

30'

Luizão↳ I. Perduta

39'

A. Boiciuc↳ Y. Nazaryna

42'

D. VasinPenalty

46'

P. N'Diaye← A. Stryzhak

46'

50'

51'

53'

61'

Y. Deda← R. Lyakh

66'

69'

71'

74'

84'

90+3'

Statistics

VorsklaKarpaty

Overview

10Corners5

Discipline

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0