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Vorskla Poltava vs Kaisar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kaisar
Kaisar
1/18/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vorskla Poltava88%
×Draw9%
Kaisar3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava
3.08
Kaisar
0.46

Vorskla Poltava creates 570% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava
3.50
Kaisar
0.67

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava
0.25
Kaisar
2.67

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par
Kaisar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Kaisar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw
97%
Vorskla Poltava or Kaisar
91%
Draw or Kaisar
12%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
70%
Kaisar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
95%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
81%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
58%
Kaisar 1+ goals
37%
Kaisar 2+ goals
8%
Kaisar 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
96%
Kaisar (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Kaisar away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 3.50 + Kaisar defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.08

Kaisar attack 0.67 + Vorskla Poltava defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more
88%
level
9%
Kaisar scores more
3%

Vorskla Poltava at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorskla Poltava vs Kaisar

Vorskla Poltava beat Kaisar 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.