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Vorskla Poltava vs Gangwon FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vorskla Poltava
Vorskla Poltava
CANC
13:00
Gangwon FC
Gangwon FC
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vorskla Poltava84%
×Draw11%
Gangwon FC5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava
2.90
Gangwon FC
0.57

Vorskla Poltava creates 409% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava
3.50
Gangwon FC
0.90

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava
0.25
Gangwon FC
2.30

finishing

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par
Gangwon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava ↓

Gangwon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava or draw
95%
Vorskla Poltava or Gangwon FC
89%
Draw or Gangwon FC
16%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+
65%
Gangwon FC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals
94%
Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals
78%
Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals
54%
Gangwon FC 1+ goals
43%
Gangwon FC 2+ goals
11%
Gangwon FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)
95%
Gangwon FC (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Gangwon FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava attack 3.50 + Gangwon FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.90

Gangwon FC attack 0.90 + Vorskla Poltava defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Vorskla Poltava scores more
84%
level
11%
Gangwon FC scores more
5%

Vorskla Poltava at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vorskla Poltava face Gangwon FC (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Vorskla Poltava hosting Gangwon FC. Match starts February 10, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vorskla Poltava host Gangwon FC at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.