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Vorderland W vs Südburgenland W — Frauenliga 2019

Vorderland W
Vorderland W
FT
2 – 1
Südburgenland W
Südburgenland W
10/27/2019FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 8Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vorderland W56%
×Draw19%
Südburgenland W25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorderland W
2.42
Südburgenland W
1.58

Vorderland W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 35 away

creates per match

Vorderland W
0.79
Südburgenland W
1.09

allows per match

Vorderland W
2.07
Südburgenland W
4.06

finishing

Vorderland W+0.00on par
Südburgenland W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorderland W ↓

Südburgenland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Vorderland W or draw
75%
Vorderland W or Südburgenland W
81%
Draw or Südburgenland W
44%

Winning margin

Vorderland W wins by 2+
35%
Südburgenland W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vorderland W 1+ goals
91%
Vorderland W 2+ goals
69%
Vorderland W 3+ goals
43%
Südburgenland W 1+ goals
79%
Südburgenland W 2+ goals
47%
Südburgenland W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vorderland W (draw refunded)
69%
Südburgenland W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorderland W at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Südburgenland W away — creates 1.09, concedes 4.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorderland W attack 0.79 + Südburgenland W defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.42

Südburgenland W attack 1.09 + Vorderland W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vorderland W scores more
56%
level
19%
Südburgenland W scores more
25%

Vorderland W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vorderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorderland W vs Südburgenland W

Vorderland W beat Südburgenland W 2-1 in Frauenliga on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Ratz in Röthis.