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Vora vs Veleçiku Koplik — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Veleçiku Koplik
Veleçiku Koplik
3/21/20211st Division1st Division · Round 16Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Vora54%
×Draw24%
Veleçiku Koplik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.73
Veleçiku Koplik
1.01

Vora creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Veleçiku Koplik
0.79

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Veleçiku Koplik
1.71

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Veleçiku Koplik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vora or draw
78%
Vora or Veleçiku Koplik
76%
Draw or Veleçiku Koplik
46%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
30%
Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
82%
Vora 2+ goals
52%
Vora 3+ goals
25%
Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals
64%
Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals
27%
Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
71%
Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Veleçiku Koplik away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.79 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vora scores more
54%
level
24%
Veleçiku Koplik scores more
22%

Vora at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Veleçiku Koplik

Vora beat Veleçiku Koplik 1-0 in 1st Division on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.