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Vora vs Valbona — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valbona
Valbona
9/16/20241st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vora55%
×Draw24%
Valbona21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.71
Valbona
0.97

Vora creates 76% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Valbona
0.72

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Valbona
1.67

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Valbona+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Valbona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vora or draw
79%
Vora or Valbona
76%
Draw or Valbona
45%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
30%
Valbona wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
82%
Vora 2+ goals
51%
Vora 3+ goals
24%
Valbona 1+ goals
62%
Valbona 2+ goals
25%
Valbona 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
72%
Valbona (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Valbona away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Valbona defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Valbona attack 0.72 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vora scores more
55%
level
24%
Valbona scores more
21%

Vora at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Vora 2–1 Valbona

Vora beat Valbona 2-1 in 1st Division on September 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.