Vora 3–1 Tirana: Result & Stats | Superliga

Vora

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tirana

H. Zuna 70'

B. Karrica 58', 36'

Eliton Junior 85'

8/31/2025

Superliga · Round 2Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vora38%

×Draw28%

Tirana34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VoraExpected goals in this matchTirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.13

Vora

1.20

Tirana

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 142 away

1.28

creates per match

1.31

0.94

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Vora

1.28

Tirana

1.31

allows per match

Vora

0.94

Tirana

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vora+0.00on par

Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vora or draw

66%

Vora or Tirana

72%

Draw or Tirana

62%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+

16%

Tirana wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals

70%

Vora 2+ goals

34%

Vora 3+ goals

12%

Tirana 1+ goals

68%

Tirana 2+ goals

31%

Tirana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)

52%

Tirana (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.28 + Tirana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tirana attack 1.31 + Vora defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vora scores more

38%

level

28%

Tirana scores more

34%

Vora at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

41'

45'

51'

51'

53'

Eliton Junior← S. Vogli

54'

58'

B. Karrica

62'

O. A. Falaye← G. Valerianos

65'

Eliton Junior

66'

Vinicius Cesar← K. Dalipi

70'

H. Zuna

80'

Wallace← E. Fazlagic

81'

A. Adeloye← Luis Felipe

83'

85'

86'

88'

90+5'

90+3'

Vora

Tirana

1

2

5

6

7

8

10

14

▼

Haxhiu

15

▼

Valeriano

21

▼

Vogli

30

Tabekou

23

Ruci

2

⚽

Zuna

5

Repaj

7

⚽2

Karrica

9

▼

Felipe

10

Kasalla

11

▼

Bardhi

14

Vrapi

18

▼

Dalipi

22

▼

Fazlagic

33

Shehi

Manager: A. Bellaj

66'▲Vinicius Cesar←▼K. Dalipi

80'▲Wallace←▼E. Fazlagic

81'▲A. Adeloye←▼Luis Felipe

90+3'▲S. Geci←▼P. Bardhi

Vora substitutes

55Harizaj4Marinaj15Ohaegbulam19Adeloye24Daka25Cesar28Wallace44Xhabafti77Geci

Manager: B. Shkëmbi

53'▲Eliton Junior←▼S. Vogli

62'▲O. A. Falaye←▼G. Valerianos

83'▲E. Mihana←▼R. Haxhiu

Tirana substitutes

12Kozi3Bastari11Abah13Karabeci17Tare20Junior22Mihana23Doka24Falaye55Tola

Vora 3 – 1 Tirana

Vora beat Tirana 3-1 in Superliga on August 31, 2025.

Goals: B. Karrica (36', 58'), H. Zuna (70'), Eliton Junior (85').

The match was played at Stadiumi Laçi in Laç.

Vora vs Tirana — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Vora 3 – 1 Tirana