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Vora vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
2/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 18Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Vora51%
×Draw26%
Tërbuni Pukë22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.48
Tërbuni Pukë
0.87

Vora creates 70% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 39 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vora or draw
78%
Vora or Tërbuni Pukë
74%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
49%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
26%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
77%
Vora 2+ goals
43%
Vora 3+ goals
19%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
58%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
22%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
70%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vora scores more
51%
level
26%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
22%

Vora at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Tërbuni Pukë

Vora beat Tërbuni Pukë 1-0 in 1st Division on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.