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Vora vs Oriku — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oriku
Oriku
12/9/20201st Division1st Division · Round 6Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Vora54%
×Draw26%
Oriku20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.50
Oriku
0.81

Vora creates 85% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 40 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Oriku
0.40

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Oriku
1.27

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Oriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vora or draw
80%
Vora or Oriku
74%
Draw or Oriku
46%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
28%
Oriku wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
78%
Vora 2+ goals
44%
Vora 3+ goals
19%
Oriku 1+ goals
56%
Oriku 2+ goals
19%
Oriku 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
73%
Oriku (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oriku attack 0.40 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vora scores more
54%
level
26%
Oriku scores more
20%

Vora at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Oriku

Vora beat Oriku 1-0 in 1st Division on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.