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Vora vs Luzi 2008 — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
1/21/20241st Division1st Division · Round 17Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Vora52%
×Draw24%
Luzi 200824%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.73
Luzi 2008
1.10

Vora creates 57% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Luzi 2008
0.97

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Luzi 2008
1.71

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Luzi 2008 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vora or draw
76%
Vora or Luzi 2008
76%
Draw or Luzi 2008
48%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
28%
Luzi 2008 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
82%
Vora 2+ goals
52%
Vora 3+ goals
25%
Luzi 2008 1+ goals
67%
Luzi 2008 2+ goals
30%
Luzi 2008 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
68%
Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vora scores more
52%
level
24%
Luzi 2008 scores more
24%

Vora at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vora 3 – 1 Luzi 2008

Vora beat Luzi 2008 3-1 in 1st Division on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.