Vora 2–3 Korabi Peshkopi: Result & Stats

Vora

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Korabi Peshkopi

3/31/2024

1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Vora47%

×Draw26%

Korabi Peshkopi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VoraExpected goals in this matchKorabi Peshkopi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Vora

1.52

Korabi Peshkopi

1.08

Vora creates 41% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 103 away

1.74

creates per match

0.93

1.23

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Vora

1.74

Korabi Peshkopi

0.93

allows per match

Vora

1.23

Korabi Peshkopi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vora+0.00on par

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vora or draw

73%

Vora or Korabi Peshkopi

74%

Draw or Korabi Peshkopi

53%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+

24%

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals

78%

Vora 2+ goals

45%

Vora 3+ goals

20%

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

66%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

29%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)

64%

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vora scores more

47%

level

26%

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

27%

Vora at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff