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Vora vs Flamurtari — Superliga 2018

Vora
Vora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
9/21/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 4Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vora49%
×Draw28%
Flamurtari23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.33
Flamurtari
0.80

Vora creates 66% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vora
1.28
Flamurtari
0.67

allows per match

Vora
0.94
Flamurtari
1.37

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vora or draw
77%
Vora or Flamurtari
72%
Draw or Flamurtari
51%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
23%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
74%
Vora 2+ goals
38%
Vora 3+ goals
15%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
55%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
19%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
69%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.28 + Flamurtari defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Flamurtari attack 0.67 + Vora defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vora scores more
49%
level
28%
Flamurtari scores more
23%

Vora at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Flamurtari

Vora beat Flamurtari 1-0 in Superliga on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Laçi in Laç.