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Vora vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
2/8/20251st Division1st Division · Round 22Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Vora45%
×Draw25%
Erzeni Shijak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.52
Erzeni Shijak
1.19

Vora creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vora or draw
70%
Vora or Erzeni Shijak
75%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
55%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
22%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
78%
Vora 2+ goals
45%
Vora 3+ goals
20%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
70%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
33%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
60%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vora scores more
45%
level
25%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
30%

Vora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Erzeni Shijak

Vora beat Erzeni Shijak 5-1 in 1st Division on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.