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Vora vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — League #512 2026

Vora
Vora
FT
1 – 2
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
10/30/2016League #512League #512 · Round 4Kompleksi Kevitan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vora47%
×Draw26%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.46
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.03

Vora creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vora
1.29
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.63

allows per match

Vora
1.43
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.63

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vora or draw
73%
Vora or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
74%
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
53%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
23%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
77%
Vora 2+ goals
43%
Vora 3+ goals
18%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
64%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
28%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
64%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.29 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 0.63 + Vora defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vora scores more
47%
level
26%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
27%

Vora at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Vora 2-1 in League #512 on October 30, 2016.

The match was played at Kompleksi Kevitan in Yrshek.