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Vora vs Burreli — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Burreli
Burreli
10/30/20241st Division1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Vora50%
×Draw25%
Burreli25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.59
Burreli
1.04

Vora creates 53% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 100 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Burreli
0.86

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Burreli
1.44

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Burreli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vora or draw
75%
Vora or Burreli
75%
Draw or Burreli
50%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
26%
Burreli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
80%
Vora 2+ goals
47%
Vora 3+ goals
21%
Burreli 1+ goals
65%
Burreli 2+ goals
28%
Burreli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
67%
Burreli (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Burreli attack 0.86 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vora scores more
50%
level
25%
Burreli scores more
25%

Vora at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Vora 2–0 Burreli

Vora beat Burreli 2-0 in 1st Division on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.