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Vora vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
3/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 22Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vora50%
×Draw25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.60
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.04

Vora creates 54% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vora or draw
75%
Vora or Besëlidhja Lezhë
75%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
50%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
80%
Vora 2+ goals
47%
Vora 3+ goals
22%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
65%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
28%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
67%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vora scores more
50%
level
25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
25%

Vora at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Vora 2–4 Besëlidhja Lezhë

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Vora 4-2 in 1st Division on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.