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Vora vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
3/3/20241st Division1st Division · Round 23Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Vora46%
×Draw25%
Besa Kavajë29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.60
Besa Kavajë
1.21

Vora creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 100 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vora or draw
71%
Vora or Besa Kavajë
75%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
54%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
24%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
80%
Vora 2+ goals
47%
Vora 3+ goals
22%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
70%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
34%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
62%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vora scores more
46%
level
25%
Besa Kavajë scores more
29%

Vora at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Vora 3–0 Besa Kavajë

Vora beat Besa Kavajë 3-0 in 1st Division on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.