Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vora vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Vora
Vora
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
3/9/20251st Division1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Vora44%
×Draw26%
Apolonia Fier30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vora
1.46
Apolonia Fier
1.14

Vora creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 95 away

creates per match

Vora
1.74
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Vora
1.23
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Vora+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vora ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vora or draw
70%
Vora or Apolonia Fier
74%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
56%

Winning margin

Vora wins by 2+
22%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vora 1+ goals
77%
Vora 2+ goals
43%
Vora 3+ goals
18%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
68%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
32%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vora (draw refunded)
60%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vora at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 61 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vora attack 1.74 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Vora defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vora scores more
44%
level
26%
Apolonia Fier scores more
30%

Vora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vora vs Apolonia Fier

Vora and Apolonia Fier drew 1-1 in 1st Division on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Vora in Vora.