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Voorwaarts vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
FT
1 – 1
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
5/26/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Voorwaarts22%
×Draw21%
Robin Hood57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voorwaarts
1.24
Robin Hood
2.12

Robin Hood creates 71% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Voorwaarts
1.58
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

Voorwaarts
1.19
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

Voorwaarts+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voorwaarts ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Voorwaarts or draw
43%
Voorwaarts or Robin Hood
79%
Draw or Robin Hood
78%

Winning margin

Voorwaarts wins by 2+
9%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Voorwaarts 1+ goals
71%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
35%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
13%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
88%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
62%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
28%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voorwaarts at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voorwaarts attack 1.58 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + Voorwaarts defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Voorwaarts scores more
22%
level
21%
Robin Hood scores more
57%

Robin Hood at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Voorwaarts 1–1 Robin Hood

Voorwaarts and Robin Hood drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.