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Robin Hood vs Voorwaarts — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
2/21/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Robin Hood53%
×Draw21%
Voorwaarts25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
2.04
Voorwaarts
1.34

Robin Hood creates 52% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
Voorwaarts
1.95

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
Voorwaarts
1.17

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
Voorwaarts+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Voorwaarts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
75%
Robin Hood or Voorwaarts
79%
Draw or Voorwaarts
47%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
31%
Voorwaarts wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
87%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
60%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
33%
Voorwaarts 1+ goals
74%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
39%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
68%
Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Voorwaarts away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Voorwaarts defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.04

Voorwaarts attack 1.95 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Robin Hood scores more
53%
level
21%
Voorwaarts scores more
25%

Robin Hood at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Robin Hood 3–1 Voorwaarts

Robin Hood beat Voorwaarts 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 21, 2026.