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Voorwaarts vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
FT
1 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
6/24/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Voorwaarts53%
×Draw22%
Flora Tallinn25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voorwaarts
1.92
Flora Tallinn
1.26

Voorwaarts creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 12 away

creates per match

Voorwaarts
1.58
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Voorwaarts
1.19
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Voorwaarts+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voorwaarts ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Voorwaarts or draw
75%
Voorwaarts or Flora Tallinn
78%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
47%

Winning margin

Voorwaarts wins by 2+
30%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Voorwaarts 1+ goals
85%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
57%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
30%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
72%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
36%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
68%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voorwaarts at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voorwaarts attack 1.58 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.92

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Voorwaarts defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Voorwaarts scores more
53%
level
22%
Flora Tallinn scores more
25%

Voorwaarts at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Voorwaarts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Voorwaarts 1–1 Flora Tallinn

Voorwaarts and Flora Tallinn drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.