Volyn Lutsk II 1–1 Uzhhorod: Result & Stats

Volyn Lutsk II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Uzhhorod

D. Teslyuk 81' (pen)

Y. Chonka 22'

6/11/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 26Stadion Pidshypnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Volyn Lutsk II28%

×Draw25%

Uzhhorod48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volyn Lutsk IIExpected goals in this matchUzhhorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.63

Volyn Lutsk II

1.18

Uzhhorod

1.63

Uzhhorod creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 45 away

0.92

creates per match

1.51

1.75

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Volyn Lutsk II

0.92

Uzhhorod

1.51

allows per match

Volyn Lutsk II

1.75

Uzhhorod

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volyn Lutsk II+0.00on par

Uzhhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volyn Lutsk II ↓

Uzhhorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Volyn Lutsk II or draw

52%

Volyn Lutsk II or Uzhhorod

75%

Draw or Uzhhorod

72%

Winning margin

Volyn Lutsk II wins by 2+

11%

Uzhhorod wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Volyn Lutsk II 1+ goals

69%

Volyn Lutsk II 2+ goals

33%

Volyn Lutsk II 3+ goals

12%

Uzhhorod 1+ goals

80%

Uzhhorod 2+ goals

48%

Uzhhorod 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Volyn Lutsk II (draw refunded)

37%

Uzhhorod (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volyn Lutsk II at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Uzhhorod away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volyn Lutsk II attack 0.92 + Uzhhorod defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Uzhhorod attack 1.51 + Volyn Lutsk II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Volyn Lutsk II scores more

28%

level

25%

Uzhhorod scores more

48%

Uzhhorod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uzhhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Y. Chonka

46'

V. Ferentsyk← Y. Chonka

55'

V. Duran← O. Dopilka

81'

D. TeslyukPenalty

90'

D. Umanets← T. Zavadovych

90'

I. Grytsyuk← N. Kuzmych

Volyn

Uzhhorod

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Shakhov

90'▲D. Umanets←▼T. Zavadovych

90'▲I. Grytsyuk←▼N. Kuzmych

Volyn Lutsk II substitutes

UmanetsGrytsyuk

Manager: V. Vasyutyk

46'▲V. Ferentsyk←▼Y. Chonka

55'▲V. Duran←▼O. Dopilka

Uzhhorod substitutes

FerentsykDuran