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Volyn Lutsk II vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Volyn Lutsk II
Volyn Lutsk II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
9/6/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 1Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Volyn Lutsk II29%
×Draw25%
Nyva Vinnytsya45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volyn Lutsk II
1.19
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.54

Nyva Vinnytsya creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 76 away

creates per match

Volyn Lutsk II
0.92
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.32

allows per match

Volyn Lutsk II
1.75
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.46

finishing

Volyn Lutsk II+0.00on par
Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volyn Lutsk II ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Volyn Lutsk II or draw
55%
Volyn Lutsk II or Nyva Vinnytsya
75%
Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya
71%

Winning margin

Volyn Lutsk II wins by 2+
12%
Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Volyn Lutsk II 1+ goals
70%
Volyn Lutsk II 2+ goals
33%
Volyn Lutsk II 3+ goals
12%
Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
79%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
45%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Volyn Lutsk II (draw refunded)
39%
Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volyn Lutsk II at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volyn Lutsk II attack 0.92 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Volyn Lutsk II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Volyn Lutsk II scores more
29%
level
25%
Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
45%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Volyn Lutsk II 3–1 Nyva Vinnytsya

Volyn Lutsk II beat Nyva Vinnytsya 3-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Luts'k.