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Voluntari II vs Gloria Băneasa — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gloria Băneasa
Gloria Băneasa
5/11/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Voluntari II38%
×Draw22%
Gloria Băneasa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
1.75
Gloria Băneasa
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 56 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
Gloria Băneasa
1.55

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
Gloria Băneasa
1.89

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
Gloria Băneasa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

Gloria Băneasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
60%
Voluntari II or Gloria Băneasa
78%
Draw or Gloria Băneasa
62%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
19%
Gloria Băneasa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
83%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
52%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
25%
Gloria Băneasa 1+ goals
83%
Gloria Băneasa 2+ goals
54%
Gloria Băneasa 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
49%
Gloria Băneasa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

Gloria Băneasa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.89 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + Gloria Băneasa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gloria Băneasa attack 1.55 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Voluntari II scores more
38%
level
22%
Gloria Băneasa scores more
40%

Gloria Băneasa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gloria Băneasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Voluntari II 0–1 Gloria Băneasa

Gloria Băneasa beat Voluntari II 1-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.