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Voluntari II vs Axiopolis — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Axiopolis
Axiopolis
4/10/2026Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Voluntari II39%
×Draw22%
Axiopolis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
1.87
Axiopolis
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
Axiopolis
1.69

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
Axiopolis
2.12

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
Axiopolis+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

Axiopolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
61%
Voluntari II or Axiopolis
78%
Draw or Axiopolis
61%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
21%
Axiopolis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
85%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
56%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
29%
Axiopolis 1+ goals
85%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
56%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
50%
Axiopolis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

Axiopolis away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + Axiopolis defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.87

Axiopolis attack 1.69 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Voluntari II scores more
39%
level
22%
Axiopolis scores more
39%

Voluntari II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Voluntari II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Voluntari II 1–2 Axiopolis

Axiopolis beat Voluntari II 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on April 10, 2026.