Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Voluntari II vs Agricola Borcea — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Voluntari II
Voluntari II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Agricola Borcea
Agricola Borcea
12/2/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 15Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Voluntari II40%
×Draw22%
Agricola Borcea38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voluntari II
1.89
Agricola Borcea
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 62 away

creates per match

Voluntari II
1.62
Agricola Borcea
1.66

allows per match

Voluntari II
2.05
Agricola Borcea
2.16

finishing

Voluntari II+0.00on par
Agricola Borcea+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voluntari II ↓

Agricola Borcea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Voluntari II or draw
62%
Voluntari II or Agricola Borcea
78%
Draw or Agricola Borcea
60%

Winning margin

Voluntari II wins by 2+
21%
Agricola Borcea wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Voluntari II 1+ goals
85%
Voluntari II 2+ goals
56%
Voluntari II 3+ goals
29%
Agricola Borcea 1+ goals
84%
Agricola Borcea 2+ goals
55%
Agricola Borcea 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Voluntari II (draw refunded)
51%
Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voluntari II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.05 · 42 matches

Agricola Borcea away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.16 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voluntari II attack 1.62 + Agricola Borcea defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.89

Agricola Borcea attack 1.66 + Voluntari II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Voluntari II scores more
40%
level
22%
Agricola Borcea scores more
38%

Voluntari II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Voluntari II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: Voluntari II 0–1 Agricola Borcea

Agricola Borcea beat Voluntari II 1-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.