Volta Redonda 2–3 Tupi: Result & Stats | Serie C

Volta Redonda

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Tupi

Bruno Barra 76'

Dija Baiano 13'

Patrick Carvalho 90+4', 51'

João Vítor 90' (pen)

6/2/2018

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira (Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Volta Redonda59%

×Draw23%

Tupi18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchTupi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.89

Volta Redonda

1.79

Tupi

0.89

Volta Redonda creates 101% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

0.90

0.87

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Volta Redonda

1.57

Tupi

0.90

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.87

Tupi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Tupi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Tupi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

82%

Volta Redonda or Tupi

77%

Draw or Tupi

41%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

33%

Tupi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

83%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

53%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

26%

Tupi 1+ goals

59%

Tupi 2+ goals

22%

Tupi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

76%

Tupi (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Tupi away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Tupi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tupi attack 0.90 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

59%

level

23%

Tupi scores more

18%

Volta Redonda at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

30'

46'

51'

56'

Vinícius Pacheco← Rodrigo

67'

Jhulliam← Nubio Flavio

67'

João Willian← Diego

76'

Bruno Barra

79'

Rodrigo Dias← Afonso

90'

João VítorPenalty

90+4'

Patrick Carvalho

Volta

Tupi

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Marcelo Salles

30'▲Luã Lúcio←▼Romarinho

56'▲Vinícius Pacheco←▼Rodrigo

67'▲Jhulliam←▼Nubio Flavio

Volta Redonda substitutes

LúcioPachecoJhulliamDiegoMartínezCostaDiogoFernandinhoCunhaPauloGabrielPablo

Manager: Eugênio Souza

46'▲João Vítor←▼Marcel

67'▲João Willian←▼Diego

79'▲Rodrigo Dias←▼Afonso

Tupi substitutes

VítorWillianDiasGonçalvesCésarHenriqueHenriqueKalu