Volta Redonda 1–0 Paysandu: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paysandu

Gabriel Bahia 90'

5/3/2025

Serie B · Round 6Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Volta Redonda42%

×Draw31%

Paysandu27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchPaysandu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.84

Volta Redonda

1.13

Paysandu

0.84

Volta Redonda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

0.84

creates per match

1.00

0.68

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.84

Paysandu

1.00

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.68

Paysandu

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Paysandu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

73%

Volta Redonda or Paysandu

69%

Draw or Paysandu

58%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

18%

Paysandu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

68%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

31%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

11%

Paysandu 1+ goals

57%

Paysandu 2+ goals

21%

Paysandu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

61%

Paysandu (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.84 + Paysandu defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Paysandu attack 1.00 + Volta Redonda defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

42%

level

31%

Paysandu scores more

27%

Volta Redonda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Gabriel Bahia

Volta Redonda · D

8.5

Match Events

24'

GabrielRed card cancelled

28'

32'

50'

59'

61'

62'

64'

64'

66'

67'

67'

Mirandinha← Hyuri

70'

Edilson← Bryan Borges

70'

Marlon Douglas← B. Borasi

76'

Wellington Silva← Jhonny

76'

Luciano Naninho← Fabricio

85'

Matheus Lucas← Robinho

90'

Gabriel Bahia↳ Luciano Naninho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaPaysandu

Overview

64%Possession36%

24Total Shots12

8Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots12

4On Target0

9Off Target6

11Blocked6

13Inside Box6

11Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

416Total Passes236

352Accurate Passes178

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Volta Redonda vs Paysandu

Volta Redonda beat Paysandu 1-0 in Serie B on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Gabriel Bahia (90').

Volta Redonda controlled possession (64%) and registered 24 shots to 12.

The match was played at Raulino de Oliveira in Rio de Janeiro.

Volta Redonda vs Paysandu — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Volta Redonda vs Paysandu