Volta Redonda 3–0 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie C

Volta Redonda

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuiaba

Marcelo 82'

Romarinho 69'

Weriton 13' (OG)

4/21/2018

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira (Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Volta Redonda47%

×Draw24%

Cuiaba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.22

Volta Redonda

1.64

Cuiaba

1.22

Volta Redonda creates 34% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

1.57

creates per match

1.57

0.87

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Volta Redonda

1.57

Cuiaba

1.57

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.87

Cuiaba

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

72%

Volta Redonda or Cuiaba

76%

Draw or Cuiaba

53%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

25%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

81%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

49%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

23%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

70%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

34%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

62%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Cuiaba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cuiaba attack 1.57 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

47%

level

24%

Cuiaba scores more

28%

Volta Redonda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

WeritonOwn goal

40'

Jefferson Feijão← Talles Cunha

46'

Alê← André Mensalão

58'

João Cleriston← Rodrigo

69'

Romarinho

73'

Ronaell← Alê

82'

Luã Lúcio← Jhulliam

82'

Marcelo

86'

Luis Gustavo← Romarinho

Volta

Cuiaba

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Romarinho

Manager: Marcelo Salles

58'▲João Cleriston←▼Rodrigo

82'▲Luã Lúcio←▼Jhulliam

86'▲Luis Gustavo←▼Romarinho

Volta Redonda substitutes

CleristonLúcioGustavoAnselmoDiegoFernandinhoCunhaPauloGabrielPabloRogerPacheco

Manager: Itamar Schülle

40'▲Jefferson Feijão←▼Talles Cunha

46'▲Alê←▼André Mensalão

73'▲Ronaell←▼Alê

Cuiaba substitutes

FeijãoAlêRonaellCarlosAlvesGeovaniWeverton