Volta Redonda 1–0 Caxias: Result & Stats | Serie C

Volta Redonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caxias

Patrick 62'

6/23/2024

Serie C · Round 10Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Volta Redonda52%

×Draw27%

Caxias21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchCaxias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.82

Volta Redonda

1.45

Caxias

0.82

Volta Redonda creates 77% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

1.57

creates per match

0.77

0.87

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Volta Redonda

1.57

Caxias

0.77

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.87

Caxias

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Caxias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

79%

Volta Redonda or Caxias

73%

Draw or Caxias

48%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

26%

Caxias wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

77%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

42%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

18%

Caxias 1+ goals

56%

Caxias 2+ goals

20%

Caxias 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

71%

Caxias (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 84 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 1.57 + Caxias defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Caxias attack 0.77 + Volta Redonda defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

52%

level

27%

Caxias scores more

21%

Volta Redonda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

13'

42'

45+1'

46'

Karl← Wellington Silva

46'

Mateus Mendes← Lucas Ryan

60'

Bruno Barra

62'

Pedro Cuiabá← Barba

62'

Vitor Feijão← Yuri Ferraz

62'

Patrick

70'

Kesley← Douglas Skilo

77'

Juninho Monteiro← Patrick

77'

Lucas Souza← Henrique Silva

83'

Juninho

83'

Robinho← Geilson

88'

Peninha← Tomas Bastos

90+1'

Zé Vitor

Volta4-2-3-1

Caxias4-2-3-1

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Patrick

Carvalho

Manager: Rogério Corrêa

13'▲Rafinha←▼Vini Moura

46'▲Karl←▼Wellington Silva

70'▲Kesley←▼Douglas Skilo

77'▲Juninho Monteiro←▼Patrick

77'▲Lucas Souza←▼Henrique Silva

Volta Redonda substitutes

RafinhaKarlKesleyMonteiroSouzaAvelinoCristianoBahiaOliveiraCristianMichelOliveira

Manager: Argel Fuchs

46'▲Mateus Mendes←▼Lucas Ryan

62'▲Pedro Cuiabá←▼Barba

62'▲Vitor Feijão←▼Yuri Ferraz

83'▲Robinho←▼Geilson

88'▲Peninha←▼Tomas Bastos

Caxias substitutes

MendesCuiabáFeijãoRobinhoPeninhaCoelhoDirceuElyeserMartinsSouzaBorjaDeuner

Serie C: Volta Redonda 1–0 Caxias

Volta Redonda beat Caxias 1-0 in Serie C on June 23, 2024.

Goals: Patrick (62').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira in Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro.

Volta Redonda vs Caxias — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Volta Redonda 1–0 Caxias