Volta Redonda 0–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats

Volta Redonda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

Leo Gamalho 68' (pen)

11/3/2025

Serie B · Round 35Raulino de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Volta Redonda45%

×Draw31%

Botafogo SP23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volta RedondaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.72

Volta Redonda

1.13

Botafogo SP

0.72

Volta Redonda creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

0.84

creates per match

0.75

0.68

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Volta Redonda

0.84

Botafogo SP

0.75

allows per match

Volta Redonda

0.68

Botafogo SP

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volta Redonda+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volta Redonda ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Volta Redonda or draw

77%

Volta Redonda or Botafogo SP

69%

Draw or Botafogo SP

55%

Winning margin

Volta Redonda wins by 2+

19%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Volta Redonda 1+ goals

68%

Volta Redonda 2+ goals

31%

Volta Redonda 3+ goals

11%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

51%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

16%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Volta Redonda (draw refunded)

66%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volta Redonda at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volta Redonda attack 0.84 + Botafogo SP defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Botafogo SP attack 0.75 + Volta Redonda defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Volta Redonda scores more

45%

level

31%

Botafogo SP scores more

23%

Volta Redonda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Volta Redonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Igor Morais

Volta Redonda · D

7.7

Match Events

35'

Ericson da Silva

61'

Marcos Vinicius

61'

PK← Andre Luiz

63'

L. Maciel← Wesley Dias

63'

Leo Gamalho← Guilherme Queiroz

63'

Marquinho← Gabriel Barros

68'

Leo GamalhoPenalty

70'

Matheus Lucas← MV

70'

Ygor Catatau← Marquinhos

71'

Alejo Dramisino

73'

Gabriel Risso Patrón

75'

Jonathan Cafu← A. Dramisino

76'

Juninho Monteiro← Caio Roque

76'

Joao Pedro← Jhonny

85'

Gabriel

87'

Alisson Cassiano← Jefferson Nem

90+6'

Matheus Lucas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VoltaBotafogo

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots10

1.04Expected Goals (xG)1.32

3Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

2On Target3

7Off Target2

3Blocked5

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

422Total Passes258

349Accurate Passes184

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0