Völsungur 1–1 Keflavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Völsungur

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Keflavik

J. Róbertsson 40'

S. Ljubicic 67' (pen)

6/14/2025

1. Deild · Round 8PCC völlurinn Húsavík

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Völsungur32%

×Draw22%

Keflavik46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VölsungurExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.95

Völsungur

1.58

Keflavik

1.95

Keflavik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.44

creates per match

1.67

2.22

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Völsungur

1.44

Keflavik

1.67

allows per match

Völsungur

2.22

Keflavik

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Völsungur+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völsungur ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Völsungur or draw

54%

Völsungur or Keflavik

78%

Draw or Keflavik

68%

Winning margin

Völsungur wins by 2+

15%

Keflavik wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Völsungur 1+ goals

79%

Völsungur 2+ goals

47%

Völsungur 3+ goals

21%

Keflavik 1+ goals

86%

Keflavik 2+ goals

58%

Keflavik 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Völsungur (draw refunded)

40%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völsungur at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völsungur attack 1.44 + Keflavik defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Keflavik attack 1.67 + Völsungur defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Völsungur scores more

32%

level

22%

Keflavik scores more

46%

Keflavik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

J. Róbertsson

45'

G. Torfason

53'

K. Sigfusson

54'

A. Kristjansson

57'

I. Albizuri

59'

M. Brigic

62'

I. Salmi

66'

I. Albizuri

66'

I. Albizuri

67'

S. LjubicicPenalty

90+4'

G. Torfason

Völsungur

Keflavik

Manager: A. Friðriksson

Manager: H. Guðmundsson