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Völsungur vs Höttur — 2. Deild 2018

Völsungur
Völsungur
FT
2 – 3
Höttur
Höttur
9/15/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 21Húsavíkurvöllur (Húsavík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Völsungur62%
×Draw19%
Höttur19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völsungur
2.40
Höttur
1.27

Völsungur creates 89% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 11 away

creates per match

Völsungur
1.97
Höttur
1.18

allows per match

Völsungur
1.37
Höttur
2.82

finishing

Völsungur+0.00on par
Höttur+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völsungur ↓

Höttur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Völsungur or draw
81%
Völsungur or Höttur
81%
Draw or Höttur
38%

Winning margin

Völsungur wins by 2+
40%
Höttur wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Völsungur 1+ goals
91%
Völsungur 2+ goals
69%
Völsungur 3+ goals
42%
Höttur 1+ goals
72%
Höttur 2+ goals
36%
Höttur 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Völsungur (draw refunded)
76%
Höttur (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völsungur at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 76 matches

Höttur away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völsungur attack 1.97 + Höttur defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.40

Höttur attack 1.18 + Völsungur defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Völsungur scores more
62%
level
19%
Höttur scores more
19%

Völsungur at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Völsungur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Völsungur 2–3 Höttur

Höttur beat Völsungur 3-2 in 2. Deild on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Húsavíkurvöllur (Húsavík).