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Völs vs Zams — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Völs
Völs
CANC
22:00
Zams
Zams
5/15/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Sportplatz Völs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Völs69%
×Draw17%
Zams14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Völs
2.68
Zams
1.16

Völs creates 131% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 29 away

creates per match

Völs
2.05
Zams
0.86

allows per match

Völs
1.46
Zams
3.31

finishing

Völs+0.00on par
Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Völs ↓

Zams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Völs or draw
86%
Völs or Zams
83%
Draw or Zams
31%

Winning margin

Völs wins by 2+
48%
Zams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Völs 1+ goals
93%
Völs 2+ goals
74%
Völs 3+ goals
49%
Zams 1+ goals
69%
Zams 2+ goals
32%
Zams 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Völs (draw refunded)
83%
Zams (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Völs at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Völs attack 2.05 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.68

Zams attack 0.86 + Völs defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Völs scores more
69%
level
17%
Zams scores more
14%

Völs at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Völs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Völs face Zams (Landesliga - Tirol)

Landesliga - Tirol returns with Völs hosting Zams. Match starts May 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Völs host Zams at Sportplatz Völs.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.