Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Volov Shumen vs Topoli — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
FT
0 – 3
Topoli
Topoli
10/14/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 8Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Volov Shumen57%
×Draw22%
Topoli21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
1.97
Topoli
1.11

Volov Shumen creates 77% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Topoli
0.85

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Topoli
2.09

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Topoli+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Topoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
79%
Volov Shumen or Topoli
78%
Draw or Topoli
43%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
34%
Topoli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
86%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
58%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
31%
Topoli 1+ goals
67%
Topoli 2+ goals
30%
Topoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
73%
Topoli (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Topoli away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Topoli defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.97

Topoli attack 0.85 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
57%
level
22%
Topoli scores more
21%

Volov Shumen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Volov Shumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Volov Shumen 0–3 Topoli

Topoli beat Volov Shumen 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen)).