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Volov Shumen vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
FT
1 – 4
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
4/17/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 24Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Volov Shumen33%
×Draw24%
Suvorovo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
1.38
Suvorovo
1.61

Suvorovo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 20 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
57%
Volov Shumen or Suvorovo
76%
Draw or Suvorovo
67%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
15%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
75%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
40%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
16%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
80%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
48%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
43%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
33%
level
24%
Suvorovo scores more
43%

Suvorovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volov Shumen 1 – 4 Suvorovo

Suvorovo beat Volov Shumen 4-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen)).