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Volov Shumen vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Volov Shumen
Volov Shumen
CANC
15:00
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
8/26/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 3Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Volov Shumen63%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Ruse18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volov Shumen
2.28
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.13

Volov Shumen creates 102% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 52 away

creates per match

Volov Shumen
1.85
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Volov Shumen
1.38
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Volov Shumen+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volov Shumen ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Volov Shumen or draw
82%
Volov Shumen or Lokomotiv Ruse
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
37%

Winning margin

Volov Shumen wins by 2+
40%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Volov Shumen 1+ goals
90%
Volov Shumen 2+ goals
66%
Volov Shumen 3+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Volov Shumen (draw refunded)
78%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volov Shumen at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volov Shumen attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.28

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Volov Shumen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Volov Shumen scores more
63%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
18%

Volov Shumen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Volov Shumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Volov Shumen vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Match Preview

Volov Shumen face Lokomotiv Ruse on August 26, 2023 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Volov Shumen host Lokomotiv Ruse at Stadion Panayot Volov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.