Volos NFC 2–1 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Volos NFC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PAS Giannina

11/10/2022

Super League 1 · Round 12Panthessaliko Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Volos NFC41%

×Draw27%

PAS Giannina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volos NFCExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Volos NFC

1.35

PAS Giannina

1.15

Volos NFC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 83 away

1.10

creates per match

0.88

1.42

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Volos NFC

1.10

PAS Giannina

0.88

allows per match

Volos NFC

1.42

PAS Giannina

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volos NFC+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volos NFC ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Volos NFC or draw

68%

Volos NFC or PAS Giannina

73%

Draw or PAS Giannina

59%

Winning margin

Volos NFC wins by 2+

19%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Volos NFC 1+ goals

74%

Volos NFC 2+ goals

39%

Volos NFC 3+ goals

15%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

68%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

32%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Volos NFC (draw refunded)

56%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volos NFC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volos NFC attack 1.10 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Volos NFC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Volos NFC scores more

41%

level

27%

PAS Giannina scores more

32%

Volos NFC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Volos NFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff