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Volos NFC vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018

Volos NFC
Volos NFC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
PAOK
PAOK
9/21/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 5Panthessaliko Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Volos NFC26%
×Draw25%
PAOK49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volos NFC
1.06
PAOK
1.57

PAOK creates 48% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 137 away

creates per match

Volos NFC
1.10
PAOK
1.72

allows per match

Volos NFC
1.42
PAOK
1.03

finishing

Volos NFC+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volos NFC ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Volos NFC or draw
51%
Volos NFC or PAOK
75%
Draw or PAOK
74%

Winning margin

Volos NFC wins by 2+
10%
PAOK wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Volos NFC 1+ goals
65%
Volos NFC 2+ goals
29%
Volos NFC 3+ goals
9%
PAOK 1+ goals
79%
PAOK 2+ goals
46%
PAOK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Volos NFC (draw refunded)
34%
PAOK (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volos NFC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volos NFC attack 1.10 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

PAOK attack 1.72 + Volos NFC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Volos NFC scores more
26%
level
25%
PAOK scores more
49%

PAOK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Volos NFC 1–4 PAOK

PAOK beat Volos NFC 4-1 in Super League 1 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Panthessaliko Stadio in Volos.