Volos NFC 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

Volos NFC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olympiakos Piraeus

8/17/2024

Super League 1 · Round 1Panthessaliko Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Volos NFC22%

×Draw25%

Olympiakos Piraeus53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volos NFCExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.56

Volos NFC

0.90

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.56

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 73% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 137 away

1.10

creates per match

1.71

1.42

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Volos NFC

1.10

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.71

allows per match

Volos NFC

1.42

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volos NFC+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volos NFC ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Volos NFC or draw

47%

Volos NFC or Olympiakos Piraeus

75%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

78%

Winning margin

Volos NFC wins by 2+

7%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Volos NFC 1+ goals

59%

Volos NFC 2+ goals

23%

Volos NFC 3+ goals

6%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

79%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

46%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Volos NFC (draw refunded)

29%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volos NFC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 118 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.69 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volos NFC attack 1.10 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.71 + Volos NFC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Volos NFC scores more

22%

level

25%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

53%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff